THE OBENSON REPORT

Covering Cinema From All Across The African Diaspora

AWARDS - Tambay's Oscar Predictions!



This is a repost of an original entry made on the 22nd of January, the day the nominees were announced. I predicted who/what I thought would win in each category, and I still stand by them, a month later. So, place your bets!


Let's just get right to it. Who/what I think will win each main category is in BOLD, along with my comments.

Best picture
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire" (Finally saw it. Over-rated!! Yet, given its above competition, I think it's its award to lose... unfortunately)

Actor
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk"
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler" (He won it at the Golden Globes; so, I think the Academy will give it to him as well... everybody loves a "comeback" story. Although, I'll keep my eye on Richard Jenkins above. He's the sleeper/spoiler in all this. "The Visitor" didn't get nods in any other categories.)

Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" (She won 2 at the Globes - Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress - which she shouldn't have. So, I think this is her year. Anne Hathaway is also in my sights.)

Supporting actor
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" (Next to "comeback" stories, the Academy loves sentimentality. Don't get me wrong - Ledger put on a good show; but I'm not so sure he's included in the conversation if he was still alive. We'll never know, will we? BTW, Robert Downey Jr in "Tropic Thunder?" Are you fucking kidding me? Was Eddie Murphy ever nominated for his "multi-facial" turn in films like "The Nutty Professor?")
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis, "Doubt" (This is the toughest category, I think, because all the performances are worthwhile. But, I'm going with Viola. She didn't win the Globes, thanks to Kate Winslet; and with Winslet not nominated in this category, this time around, I think it's Viola's... or maybe it's just my heart talking.)
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"

Director
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire" (I'd love to see Gus Van Sant walk away with the award, but, more often than not, the director of the winner in the Best Picture category wins the Best Director award. So, the Irish-Englishman wins.)

Foreign-language film
"The Baader Meinhof Complex," Germany
"The Class," France
"Departures," Japan
"Revanche," Austria
"Waltz With Bashir," Israel (I haven't seen all of these, so I'm going with the one I've heard most about from American critics, as I'm guessing that's likely how the judges will vote.)

Adapted screenplay
Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
John Patrick Shanley, "Doubt"
Peter Morgan, "Frost/Nixon" (I'm going to go out on a limb on this one and NOT give it to the expected winner, "Slumdog Millionaire." I think "Frost/Nixon" will win something, and this might be it.)
David Hare, "The Reader"
Simon Beaufoy, "Slumdog Millionaire"

Original screenplay
Courtney Hunt, "Frozen River" (A coup for indie cinema! I haven't even seen the film; but the buzz since last year's Sundance Grand Prize win has been near-deafening. I'll see it eventually. Also, I'm wondering why "Milk" is nominated in this category. The screenplay is based on the life of a real person; I thought "Original Screenplay" meant it had to be pure fiction, from the imagination of the writer, and not based on something or someone or some event that already was.)
Mike Leigh, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
Martin McDonagh, "In Bruges"
Dustin Lance Black, "Milk"
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon and Pete Docter, "WALL-E"

Any surprises? Clint Eastwood and "Gran Torino" got completely shut out, as I believe he should have been. I like the man, but this, his last effort, was inexcusable, given the talent involved.

Also, "The Dark Knight" got no love in the Best Picure category, and neither did Christopher Nolan for Best Director, despite all the fanboy and girl chants. Many will be disappointed.

That's it for me!!!! How about you?



9 comments:

  1. V-Knowledge said...
     

    No Best Pic nod for "The Dark Knight"? Extremely disappointing, yet unsurprising. But no love for Chris Nolan for Director OR Adapted Screenplay? As Sen. Clay Davis would say: "Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-it."

    But the round of Best Pic flicks are still excellent. My pick would be "Benjamin Button". "Slumdog" isn't so much overrated as it is a touch overpraised.

    I am glad that "Frozen River" is getting recognition. I'd love to see Leo take the golden man. Whether it's Taraji P. Henson or Viola Davis for the win, I'd be happy either way.

  2. Aziza said...
     

    For surprises, you forgot "Che." Neither Benicio nor Soderbergh received noms. Nothing from the film was nominated.

    Also, "Synecdoche, NY" got nothing. P.S.H. could have gotten a "Best Actor" nod at least.

  3. Aziza said...
     

    Oh and LOL at the picture of the women grabbing "Oscar's" butt. Not much there to grab though :^)

  4. must love movies said...
     

    rubbing the golden booty
    so i've seen all of the movies in the best supporting actress except vicky christina. if i had to vote i would pick viola or marisa.

    you know what i was thinking about it the other day that "the visitor" was one of the best films i saw last year. i saw it so long ago though. i think i covered it in a post or on someone else's blog. i felt that if it ended better it should be best picture worthy. even though the black people in white people's lives story is over done i was still pleased with the picture.


    hard choice b/w mickey and sean.
    i'd like phillip to get his award. i think phillip should be nominated for best actor. what other man was in the film?


    i noticed no black films made it.

  5. The Wendilicious Wonder said...
     

    If you think Slumdog is over-rated (and it is, though I did like it a lot better than I thought I would), don't go and see The Reader.

    Obviously, it's not in the same vein as Slumdog, but it could do with something that that film had. This was the most boooooooring film I've seen in ages.

    Despite fine performances from the cast, it really just plodded along until... yawning and rubbing my eyes I realised "oh, it's over!"

    Didn't read the book, but I'm guessing there was a lot of internalisation in it and that the film maybe tried to stay a bit too true to it. There was one moment during the trial when I had an "Oh, I get it" moment following which they decided to spell it out just in case but, overall, it didn't work for me. But what do I know...?

  6. Undercover Black Man said...
     

    I was rooting for Jenny Lumet (Lena Horne's granddaughter) to get a writing nomination for "Rachel Getting Married."

    Oh well. If Anne Hathaway wins, I'm sure she'll thank her.

  7. Geniusbastard said...
     

    True about Lumet, I thought she was a shoo in for Best Original Screenplay. I certainly was looking forward to seeing her looking beautiful on the red carpet.

    A controversy is trying to arise about Loveleen Tandan, the Indian woman who translated the Slumdog Millionaire screenplay into Hindi, and directed some scenes, so much so that Boyle credited her as a co-director. Many have noticed that he isn't sharing his awards with her. She has issued a statement saying she believes Boyle should be recognized alone. I'll bet if Boyle knew he'd be receiving an Oscar for this he'd have thought twice about making her his "co-director."

  8. must love movies said...
      This comment has been removed by the author.
  9. Aziza said...
     

    Are you live-blogging the Oscars? Just a thought.

Post a Comment